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Speculation over the RBA launching QE continues to grow, even before it’s actually cut rates

Reserve Bank could raise interest rates eight times in two years, according to ex-board member John Edwards. Theorising that the long-term cash rate is about 3.5 per cent – lower than the 5.2 per cent average over the past two decades – and the RBA wants to start tightening in 2018 and reach its goal within two years, that would require four quarter-point increases each year, he said. Rates have been on hold at 1.5 per cent since last August.

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The Australian dollar and the local sharemarket are expected to lift following the European Central Bank’s decision to drive deposit rates even. actually quantitative easing, as it will be financed.

The RBA will remain alert to downside risks, but the lingering excesses in housing, even if they have eased a touch, will continue to make it difficult for the RBA to lower the cash rate again any.

3.06pm: To counter that small piece of good news from the US (see 3.02pm for better-than-expected factory orders), the IMF has cut its forecast for how much the US economy will grow. over.

Even before the end of the 1980s, the foreign exchange market had developed significantly, with the average daily turnover of Australian dollars in the Australian market having risen more than eightfold since the time of the float. By the early 1990s, volatility was also much reduced (Graph 2).

But neither are we forecasting an outbreak of inflation from the lower end of the RBA’s target range, as competing forces keep the rate of underlying inflation in check at around current rates. We expect upward pressure on inflation to come from a turnaround in wage growth and a fall in the exchange rate.

Capacity utilization increased more than a percentage point to 82.44%. Retail sales continue to show weakness, growing a paltry 2.7%, year-on-year, its lowest in three-and-a-half years.

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The RBA had already pulled back its expectations of the mining investment peak to sometime next financial year (July 2013-end of June 2014) as recently as August. However, the governor’s statement.

For one, the Shanghai Composite Index’s valuation is above its long-term average, even after a. get used to it," the RBA’s Debelle said at a launch of AFMA’s annual markets report. The Reserve Bank.